I heard a rumor today, from who I can't tell, that might be a game changer.  Here we go.  Greece might leave the Euro zone.  Can you believe it.  When they formed the common currency zone it was believed it would last for eternity.  OK , maybe this isn't breaking news but what percentage of traders really think Greece won't eventually be forced out or in my mind volunteer to leave the currency block.  You can't expect a country to drift through a generation of austerity and recession/depression because they don't want to lose the benefits of a common currency.  If you think about it from the Greek perspective.  They can leave the Euro and devalue their currency and be back to go in a few years.  Of course they will forever carry the stigma with them as the country that broke up the Euro Zone.  But then again, Greece is the father of democracy and what is democratic about an economic union run by bureaucrats.  The question will be how smoothly the transition occurs and at what coast to other Euro members.

This is the problem with trading the Euro at the moment is the uncertainty.  In the short term lets look at a few pairs heading into Asian trading.  The AUDUSD and NZDUSD both produced impressive rallies into the New York close and may be ready to blow of steam into the end of the week.  Watch for a break above .98 and sustained break above trend line resistance at .7540 to potentially produce a squeeze higher.  Data is light out of Asia and New York on friday.  So general risk trends could be the focus.  As always keep your trades KEANE and play it safe.


EURUSD Swimming in the deep end

The EURUSD can not find a bounce these days.  In Early New York trading rumors were circulating of a possible announcement of an organized multi-national central bank intervention but these rumors turned out to be just rumors.  Once North American trading began the pair dropped for the remainder of the day.  We may see a bit of profit taking into the end of the week, which could produce a bounce.  daily price support begins at 1.2515 but I would rather focus on long-term daily support at 1.2480.  The pair is in deep water now and any support zone until the 1.2150 is really a fib extension, such as the 1.272 fib at 1.2388 resent lows.  Not great for trading.  Resistance is at 1.2625.

Sup     1.2515                 1.2480

Res     1.2625

GBPUSD Drifting Lower

The GBPUSD continues its slow drift lower today in New York.  The pair is still above key support at 1.56.  Resistance can be found up at 1.5835.  Until the cross reaches either the sup or resistance zone Scalping short-term highs and lows is the only way to trade this pair.

Sup    1.56

Res    1.5835

NZDUSD Starting the Day Where It Began

The NZDUSD sloshed around for a bit today but finished the day around where it started.  The cross has been consolidating over the last three days.  The pair is drifting away from the trend line that had contained it and may be preparing for a bounce higher in the short-term.  Of coarse pair is really at the call of risk trends so market sentiment must be observed.  Support is solid at .7460 and weekly resistance is up at .7675.


Sup   .7460

Res   .7675

AUDUSD Looking for a lean place to bounce

The AUDUSD is closing in on key support at .9665.  This level represents last October’s lows and a break of this zone could open up a run towards yearly lows around .94.  Resistance can be found at .98.  The cross has stabilized over the last few days and may be looking for a bottom to rebound from.  A move to .9665 could find a buyers.

Sup      .9665

Res      .98

USDCAD Pushing Towards Support

The USDCAD has been jumping around a bit today with risk sentiment.  In early New York trading the pair flirted with breaking below support at 1.0230 befor pushing higher for the remainder of the trading day in a risk-off environment.  Daily price resistance is now at 1.0315.  If this level break we could see a run to the 1.0420 level.  Support until broken is at 1.0230.  The only way to trade this pair at the moment is to follow risk and set your targets appropriately.

Sup     1.0230

Res    1.0315


USDJPY Has taken the last few days off

The USDJPY cross has done little to nothing over the last 48 hours.  The pair has been content hanging around the 79.40 piovot level.  On Friday in early Asian trading we have the release of the JAP CPI report.  This could give the pair a bit of bounce.  In the mean time watch the 79.40.  A sustained break of this level and the pair could be on its way to test weekly highs at 80 followed by monthly price resistance at 80.60.  Support can be found at the monthly low at 79.

Sup     79

Pivot   79.40

Res     80      80.60