It has been a very interesting week.  The majors have pushed up against the dollar since Tuesday, with little to no pullback. Heading into the weekend all eyes will be on the Greek elections and possible Central bank interventions.  The results will set the tone for next weeks price action.  Data out of the US on Friday was disappointing once again pouring more gas on the QE fire.  Below is a rundown of the majors and the effects possible results this weekends could have on the pairs.   Everyone have a great weekend and keep our trades KEANE

EURUSD TOGA PARTY THIS WEEKEND..A BIGGER PICTURE

It is interesting to take a step back and take a look at the bigger picture every once in a while.  Ahead of the election this weekend there have been many pundits and locals making wild predictions about the outcome and the effects it may have.  When in reality we have no idea what the outcome of the election will be.  All we can do is prepared for a few possible scenarios.  If the New Democracy party wins the Euro should rally.  If the Syriza party wins the Euro will fall.  Now there are a few shades of grey depending on if the new government has a majority or not and a possible coordinated intervention by central banks.

When we look at the price action of the EURUSD on a monthly chart we can see that the cross has retraced a bit this month to the .382 fib from last months lows.  It isn’t unusual for a pair to retrace back to the 50 Fib from the prior months move in any month.  In fact not to test that level is against the norm.  If the New Democracy party wins this weekend and establish a majority we could easily see a pop higher into the open next week up to the 50 or 618 fib level from last months lows at 1.2784 and 1.2902.  If the Syriza party wins and central banks remain on hold we could see a test of last years lows around 1.1875.  If the central banks intervene we could see a short pop in price action and a quick exit plan mapped out for Greece.

Now lets consider what would happen if we have a mixed result.  Which is the most likely outcome.

A mixed result is a bit more complicated so lets just focus on price levels.  I would expect sellers to come in on any move up towards 1.29 and buyers to protect the monthly lows around 1.23.  In the middle the only way to play this pair is to wait for the open on Sunday.  A spike higher will most likely be faded then push up towards new highs by the end of the week.  A spike lower may find buyers anticipating a central bank intervention.  All in all, this pair will be difficult at best to trade at the start of next week.  With news pushing the cross in every which direction.  The wise thing to do would to wait for the dust to settle or take a shot at an price extreme.  I would play it small place my stops a bit wider.

 

Sup     1.23

Res      1.29

GBPUSD ONE, TWO , THREE LIFT OFF

 

The GBPUSD squeezed higher today in New York after  testing lows in early trading.  Heading into next week we could see a push higher to test the 50 fib from last months lows at 1.5783.  In the short-term daily price support can be found at 1.5783 and support is at past resistance near 1.56.  This pair will follow risk so keep and eye on news flow.

Sup      1.5715

Res       1.56

AUDUSD STEADY MOVE HIGHER

The AUDUSD slowly climber higher throughout the week.  The cross broke above the 50 fib level and looks to be taking a stab at 1.0140.  Depending on the results of the Greek elections this weekend we could see drastically different results.  Support now begins at parity.  If we see a gap open on Sunday 1.0140 should cap and .9850 shoul

 

NZDUSD RISK ON

The perfect storm may be brewing for a squeeze higher in the NZDUSD.  The US economy appear to be slowing and QE3 could be in the cards.  OF coarse any action would most likely be after the presidential elections.  A positive result in Greece and we could see a pop higher towards the 80 level next week.  Now if the news is negative out of Greece I take everything back.  A negative outcome even with the threat of QE 3 could produce dollar strength and remind everyone that the global economy is slowing down.  Support is such a case is down around .7615.

Sup   .7615

Res   .7936

USDCAD HOLDING STEADY

The CAD remained rather steady today as the rest of the markets tumbled around it.  The cross is finishing the week near support at 1.0240.  the next level of major support is just below at 1.02.  A break below that price could produce a measured move lower towards 1.0050.  Resistance begins at trend line support at 1.0280 followed by price resistance at 1.0325.

Sup   1.02

Res  1.035

USDJPY BREAKS SUPPORT

The USDJPY could be in for a bit of volatility  to start things off next week.  The cross has support at .78.  Much below that level and we could see intervention talk come into play.  Resistance starts at 79.

Sup 78

Res 79