Another Greek election and yet another confusing result. The Greek election has come and gone and the direction of the markets appears to be up at least until Wednesday with a general feeling that the FOMC may announce some version of QE or Operation Twist at that time. To start Tuesdays trading I will be watching the EURUSD sitting on Trend line support. As long as the cross can maintain that level we could see a pop higher towards the weekly highs. The AUD and NZD dollar crosses closed near the highs of the day and may also be looking to push higher. Any advance will most likely occur after the AUD reserve Board Minutes in early Asian trading. The News to watch for in European trading is the GBP CPI report and the EUR German Zew release. As always remember to keep your trades KEANE and play it safe.
EURUSD HAVE YOU HEARD THE NEWS
The greek elections have come and gone and the results have not really changed the landscape. The ND won the election and have until Wednesday to form a coalition government. If a government can not be formed another election will be required in the near future. To open the week the EURUSD spiked up to the 1.2750 level before giving back its gains through out trading Monday. The cross is currently resting on the trend line support that the pair has followed higher throughout the month at 1.2565. As long as the pair remains above this level the bias must be for a move higher once again. Resistance begins at the weekly high at 1.2750 followed by the 50 fib at 1.2785 from the May lows. If trend line support at 1,2765 is broken we could see a move to daily price support at 1.2440. German ZEW report is due in European Trading on Tuesday.
Res 1.2750 1.2785 ( 50 Fib)
Sup 1.2565 1.2440
GBPUSD HANGING ON TO THE .382 FIB
The GBPUSD has maintained most of the gains from its spike higher into Friday’s close and Sundays pop. The pair has found support at the .382 fib from the May lows at 1.5660. Heading into Tuesday trading the lows of the day at 1.5635 will be key for a move higher. A hold above this level and we could see a push higher towards the 50 fib at 1.5782. If we can push above the weekly spike high at 1.5740. If we break below support we could fall back into the range from most of least week between. In between 1.56 and 1.5450. CPI is due out in European Trading
Res 1.5740 1.5782 (50 Fib)
NZDUSD TRADING IN A NARROW RANGE
The NZDUSD traded within a very narrow range Monday. Consolidating its gains from Last week. Heading into Tuesday the plan is to watch for a break of the range. the cross has been ranging in between daily price support at .7890 and the .618 fib from the may lows over the last two days. A break of either one of these points could lead to a test lower or for a break towards a retrace of Mays decline.
Res .7936 ( .618 Fib )
AUDUSD ENDS NEAR THE HIGHS OF THE DAY
The AUDUSD finished the day Monday near its highs. The cross appears to have momo on its side ahead of the Reserve Board Minutes. Which will be released in early Asian trading. The pair has found resistance the .618 Fib from the may lows around 1.0140. If this level is broken we could see a run up towards 1.0220. Support can be now be found at the 50 fib near 1.0027. So it’s truly a fib affair for this pair at the moment. The best trade would be to wait for a move back towards trend line support around 1.0120 for a move higher but I’m not sure that opportunity is going to present itself.
USDCAD LOWER HIGH TODAY..STILL TRENDING LOWER
Oil continues to decline yet the USDCAD has maintained it slow crawl lower. The pair has solid daily support at 1.02. Price Action has bounced of this level three times in the month of June. Resistance can be found at the trend line from the May highs around 1.0280. This looks like a wedge and my plan is to play inside wedge until it breaks.
USDJPY APPEARS TO BE SETTLING DOWN IN TO A RANGE
The USDJPY has a tendency t settle into a range to start a week of only to shoot out near the end. this week may not be the exception to the rule. The cross could range trade until the Wednesday after the release of the FOMC Rate Decision. Until that point Support can be found at 78.60 and resistance is up at 79.30.