Daily Close and Next Weeks Trading Plan
2012
The majors finished the week with a bang. Almost in predictable fashion the EURUSD looked left, right, took a step forward, then back, for the majority of the week. While all of the other majors gained against the USD. Then in early New York trading news regarding the ECB acceptance of greek sovereign debt and Spanish aid sent the pair lower. The EUR managed to pull risk lower with it. This move has opened the way for a trend shift for going into the next week. Pairs such as the GBPUSD and AUDUSD broke below significant trend lines that had steered their paths higher.
EURUSD CLOSE THE WEEK AT ITS LOWS
The EURUSD cracked the trend line that had guided its slow accent throughout the week Friday. The push lower occurred after the ECB declared in a brief statement that they would no longer accept Greek government bonds as collateral. The ECB will review potential eligibility after the Troikia review. This upped the pressure on Greece to regain the trust of international creditors.
From a technical standpoint it simple pushed the EURUSD to the support of its current range. Resistance is still at 1.2330 and support is created by the monthly lows dating back to May of 2010 at 1.2150. If support breaks the next level of significants is 1.1880, which represent the yearly lows from May 2010.
Sup 1.2150 1.1880
Res 1.2330
GBPUSD BREAKS TREND LINE SUPPORT
The GBPUSD followed risk lower today and broke below the ascending trend that had acted as support all week. The cross is once again back in the range that contained it for most of the past two weeks. Support is up at 1.5720 and resistance is down at 1.5575. Any retest of the ascending trend line could find seller.
Sup 1.5575
Res 1.5675
Plan: Looking for a retest of trend line resistance to sell into.
AUDUSD LAST TO GIVE BUT BROKE TREND LINE
The AUDUSD held on as long as it could above trend line support. The pair slowly watched as it other majors gave way to the pressure of a strengthening dollar. finally towards mid day New York the AUDUSD broke below the ascending trend line that had so kindly guided the pair higher throughout the week. Support now begins at 1.0325. Heading into the new week sellers could be waiting for any test of the trend line.
Sup 1.0325
Res 1.0380
Plan: Looking to short into the new week.
NZDUSD CAN'T BREAK ON THROUGH TO THE OTHER SIDE
The NZDUSD tried to break on through to the other side this week but just didn’t have the mojo. The cross is now back in the familiar range it spent the majority of its month. It is a simple 100 pip range with support down at .79 and resistance up at .80. The cross may drift within the range to start the week.
Sup .79
Res .80
Plan: PLay the range
USDCAD TO MUCH OF A GOOD THING
The USDCAD jumped higher after a disappointing CPI report took a bit of the wind out of interest rate hike expectations in the near future. The pair is now back in a range you have seen before with support up at 1.01 and resistance at 1.02. If I had to guess I would expect a bit of consolidation. I mean this is the USDCAD.
Sup 1.01
Res 1.02
Plan: Watch for a reaction of support.
USDJPY DOWN SHE GOES
The USDJPY continues to move lower. This pair is currently playing without a safety net. The cross appears to be in a descending wedge. The only plan of action for me is to wait for a break of the wedge. Shorting the pair is to risky at this point due to fear of government intervention.
Sup .78
Res .7860
Plan: Waiting for a wedge break.
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