Keane Insights, Thursday’s Trading Plan
2012
The price action on Wednesday was very interesting. Many of the majors pushed lower in Asia but popped higher after the EU announced that the ESM may have a banking facility attached in the future. The AUDUSD and NZDUSD are on my radar this evening as both are pushing up against significant resistance levels and could pop either way depending on risk appetite in Asia. The GBPUSD is also of interest sitting around the 1.55 level. the pair could catch shorts if it moves higher. As always keep your trades KEANE and play it safe.
EURUSD POPS HIGHER WITH ESM BANKING CHATTER
The EURUSD bounced of support in Asia and squeezed higher in European and Asian trading. The catalyst for the move were comments suggesting that granting the European Stability Mechanism a banking license is a plausible course of action. If this measure was followed liquidity would be increased in the euro zone. Support heading into Asian trading can be found at the day lows at 1.2040 and resistance is at 1.2160. A push above resistance could produce a short squeeze back towards the top of last weeks range at 1.2330.
Sup 1.2040
Res 1.2160 1.2330
Keane Insight: Watch for a push above 1.2160. A hold above could lead to a move higher towards 1.2330
GBPUSD ATRACTED TO 1.55
The GBPUSD missed out on all of the fun today. The cross had troubles of its own after posting a negative GDP reading for the third quarter in a row. One more negative reading and the current recession will officially become a depression. Even with this dire news the pair managed to finish the day almost unchanged around the 1.55 level after briefly testing 1.5460. Heading into Asian and European trading the 1.55 level will once again act as a pivot. If the pair can pop and hold above this level the cross could push towards the resistance at 1.5580. If the cross reject the 1.55 level all eyes will be on daily support at 1.5460. A break of that level open the pair up to a move towards monthly lows at 1.54.
Sup 1.5460 1.54
Pivot 1.55
Res 1.5580
Keane Insight”s: Waiting for either a break of 1.5460 or a clean move above 1.55 to enter positions.
AUDUSD HAS LEFT TROUBLED WATERS FOR THE MOMENT
The AUDUSD had it rally cap on Wednesday after bouncing of daily price support at 1.02. The pair followed risk higher and settled near key resistance at 1.0320. This level may catch the attention of willing sellers depending on the overall market sentiment heading into Asian trading. A break above this level could lead to a retest of least weeks highs around 1.0450. Support can be found at the daily low at 1.026o.
Sup 1.0260
Res 1.0320
Keane Insight’s: Waiting to see price action in Asia.
NZDUSD RESERVE BANK RATE DECISION AT BAT
The NZDUSD will be the center of attention heading into Asian trading on Thursday. At 21:00 GMT the Reserve Bank Rate decision will be released. The commentary following the data could add a bit of clarity regarding the strength of the economy. The pair broke through key support yesterday at .7850 but reversed it path today and is once again above this support level. Resistance is at .7920.
Sup .7850
Res .7920
Keane Insight: Waiting for data release. A move up towards .7920 could find sellers.
USDCAD RESTING AT SUPPORT
The USDCAD is sitting at about the middle of its current range . A hold of this level and we could see a move back towards the top of the range at 1.0240. A break below this level and 1.01 would be in play.
Sup 1.01
Res 1.02
Keane Insight: Watching FX. Favoring a move higher looking for confirmation. IF risk continues higher the cross will drag lower
USDJPY SIDEWAYS ACTION
The pair drifted through the descending trend line that has contained price action over the last few weeks but forgot to pop higher. This could be due to news out of Tokyo today that the government is going to allocate one trillion Yen to an Economic Revival Plan. Rumors also circulated regarding possible intervention in the pair in the near future. Both of these stories have been pushing and pulling the cross in different directions. Support is still at .78 and resistance is at 78.60.
Sup 78
Res 78.60
Keane Insight: Standing Aside at the moment.
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