Keane Insights…Next Weeks Trading Plan

Friday ended in typical fashion with the commodity pairs closing near the highs of the day.  The EUR and GBP didn't follow with the same enthusiasm and gave up a bit of ground heading into the close.  QE or some sort of liquidity infusion has been the catalyst for this weeks rise.  Now the question is if this momentum can continue next week with so much data on the way.  European and USA central banks deliver rate decision's next week, along with conferences amongst European leaders and the NFP report  cap things off.  We could see are share of volatility next week.  Everyone have a great weekend and keep your trades KEANE.

EURUSD DRAGHI'S WORDS ARE LOSING THEIR BITE

The markets swirled with half-truths and assumptions regarding Draghi’s assertion that he will do what ever is necessary to save the euro.  On Friday, into the New York open it was rumored that the ECB President Mario Draghi would introduce new measures to reduce Spanish and Italian bond yields, including bond purchase and further rate cuts.  This news pushed the Euro higher once again.  Until later in the day it was revealed the Draghi and the president of the Bundesbank would meet next week.  Showing the markets that the commentary in the morning was really just a list of possible plans rather than a concrete course of action.

From a technical standpoint the EURUSD is still resting about midrange in a descending channel.  The cross rallied this week but fizzled into the finish.  The pair is currently once again below resistance at 1.2330 since pushing higher towards 1.2330.  This place the cross back into the range between 1.2180 and 1.2330 that contained the pair for the first few weeks of the month.  A hold below 1.2330 into the beginning of trading Monday could lead to a push back down towards the 1.2180 to start the week.

Sup        1.2180

Res        1.2330

GBPUSD It's All About The Fibs

THe GBPUSD didn't give up much of its ground overnight following Thursday's spike higher.  The pair created a bull flag overnight that was answered once trading began in Europe on Friday.   The cross broke above the weekly high at 1.5735 but could not maintain those altitudes.  Heading into next week this level will provide a bit of direction.  A push and hold above 1.5735 could lead to a test of the 50 fib from the May lows at 1.5782.  A hold at 1.5735 and a move back towards the Friday lows at the .382 fib at 1.5660 could be in the cards.

Sup        1.5660

Res        1.5735

Keane Insight:  Watching the 1.5735 level for cue.

AUDUSD Riding The Waves

The AUDUSD is approaching the top of almost a picture perfect channel.  The cross has made three round trips so far within its bounds.  Channel resistance begins around 1.0510.  This level could usher in a new set of traders looking to ride the pair back down.  Resistance begins nearby at past support at 1.0460.  A break of that level and we could see a retest of 1.0320.

Sup   1.0460           1.0320

Res   1.0510

Keane Insight:  Looking to short near the channel top.

NZDUSD BACK IN THE CONSOLIDATION ZONE

The NZDUSD moved back into the consolidation range from the first few months of the year after breaking above resistance at .8060.  The pair consolidated between .8315 and .8060 between March and April before swooning lower to .7460.  If the cross remains above .8060 the pair could first find resistance up towards .8235.

Sup   .8060

Res    .8235

Keane Insight:  Could consolidate once again at this level.

USDCAD NEAR TREND LINE SUPPORT

The USDCAD is quickly approaching the bottom of its descending channel.  descending channel support rest around parity.  A move down to this level could find buyer due to channel support, plus psychological support at 1.00.  Resistance begins at 1.0050 followed by 1.00.

Sup   1.00

Res   1.0050

Keane Insight:  Looking for a test of trend line support

USDJPY TO THE MOON

The USDJPY is the only pair that had a pure reaction to the USD GDP report.  The GDP figure came in line with expectations.  Thus lowering the possibility that further QE could be announced in the near future in the USA.  From a practical point of view this should have evolved into a stronger dollar.  Rather rumors involving a shock and awe wave of intervention from the ECB pushed the majors higher against the USD.

The USDJPY moved to the top of its range on Friday at 78.60.  This level managed to contain the upwards momentum.  Leaving the pair in the same range that it began the week.  Support is still firmly at .78.

Sup         78

Res         .7860

Keane Insight’s:  Until the range is broken.  Play the inside.

 

 

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