It was fun to play the game once again today.  The markets had a kick in their step and volatility was increased.  After the release of the FOMC minutes on Wednesday, most of the majors pushed higher against the USD.  The FOMC minutes appeared to suggest the some version of economic stimulus was most likely to be announced next week at Jackson Hole.  The problem with the FOMC minutes, is that a lot has changed since the last FOMC meeting and Wednesday.  Since the last meeting the economic data has picked up in the USA, suggesting the additional QE may remain on the back burner.  Starting in European trading Thursday the commodity currencies began to sell of against the dollar.  At the close of trading in New York Thursday many of the majors are sitting on the edge of support heading into the finial trading day of the week.  I will be watching the AUDUSD and EURUSD for holds or breaks of their respective supports for clues regarding risk.  As for data on friday, everything kicks of in AUD with financial testimony to the Economic House committee, followed by the JPY Cabinet Office Report.  In European trading all eyes will be on the GBP GDP release and in North America data ends with the Durable Goods Report.  All in all it could be an interesting day.  As always remember to keep your trades KEANE and play it safe.

AUDUSD Sitting on The Edge


The AUDUSD is testing support for the third time a break or hold of this level could set the tone for the rest of the majors.  If the pair breaks below the 1.0435 level the cross could rapidly break lower towards the 10320 level.  If the pair bounces once again at this level a test of the top of the range could be once again in the cards.

Sup     1.0435               1.0320

Res     1.0530

Keane Plan...Watching price action around support.  Favoring a break lower to end the week.

NZDUSD Lost It's Grip

similar to the AUDUSD the NZDUSD lost its mojo Thursday and fell back towards it pre FOMC level.  The cross is now once again firmly below the past weekly highs and resistance level of .8140.  A hold below this level favors a push lower towards price support at .8060.

Sup    .8060

Res   .8140

Keane Plan...A test of support could find sellers.

EURUSD Decision Time

The EURUSD is walking into the last trading day of the week resting on support at 1.2560.  A hold or break of this level is going to dictate the price action for the remainder of the week.  A hold of this level and a test of the descending trend line that has capped price action since last October at 1.2630 could be in the cards.  A break of support at 1.2560 and a rapid  decline towards 1.25 followed by 1.2440 could play out to end the week.

Sup    1.256o                    1.2500         1.2440

Res    1.2635

Keane Plan...Watching for a break of support at 1.2560.

GBPUSD Still a Game OF FIbs

The GBPUSD is still bouncing around the Fib's from May's decline.The pair managed to break above the 50 Fib on Wednesday but was quickly rebuffed by the .618 fib at 1.5904.  A break of the 1.5850 level could lead to a retest of the 50 fib at 1.5782.

Sup   1.5782

Res  1.5904

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