If you're in the Hampton's this week you made a wise choice. The markets have drifted into wait and see mode and will most likely remain this way until Ben Bernanke delivers his speech at Jackson Hole at 10 AM ET Friday. The question remain exactly what will Bernanke say on Friday. Many so-called experts are expecting some sort of QE announcement. Ranging from a shock and awe, unlimited liquidity announcement that would run until the economy recovers. To a more modest short-term program lasting only a month or so. On the other side of the camp, talk has circulated that the Fed will once again simply list all of the option it has at its disposal and reiterate the fact that they are leaning towards some sort of action. At the moment this is the way that I am leaning. With so much uncertainty still surrounding the debt crisis in the European Union the Fed may want to keep a bullet in the chamber in case the slowdown in Europe and Asia pulls down the struggling USD domestic economy.
In the short-term I would expect the majors to remain range bound until Friday. Two pairs of interest until then are USDJPY and NZDUSD. The USDJPY is pushing up trend line and daily price support. Without a catalyst it may be difficult for the pair to break above these levels. The NZDUSD is sitting in a pivot zone between .8035 and .80. A break above this zone exposes a move towards .8185 and break below exposes a drift towards .7860. In the near term the economic docket is rather shallow. News out of Europe as always could stir up the markets. As always remember to keep your trades KEANE and play it smart
EURUSD SLLOOOWWWW DRROOOPPP
The EURUSD has continued to range trade ahead of Jackson Hole. Not much has changed here. I would expect any move higher to be contained by the 1.2560/80 area and any move lower to be supported around 1.2480/60. At the moment playing the range is the only game available.
Keane Plan...PLay the range until it breaks
GBPUSD PUSHING MID-RANGE
The GBPUSD has been crawling higher at a snail's pace. The cross is nearing the midpoint of the current range at 1.5847. this level could act as resistance in the short-term. A break higher exposes the .618 Fib at 1.5904 and a push lower opens up the .50 Fib at 1.5782.
Keane Plan...Watch Price action at 1.5847
AUDUSD SIDEWAYS TRADING
There is nothing to see here the AUDUSD is trading in a slow sideways grind. If the pair manages to touch either the 1.0430 level or support at 1.0320 sellers and buyers could emerge. At the moment the best plan is to remain on the sideline.
Keane Plan..Sometimes the best trade is not to trade.
NZDUSD RESTING AT ITS PIVOT
THE NZDUSD is in an interesting position. The cross is currently resting in a pivotal zone. The .8035/00 level is the pivot. A break of this level exposes the pair to a drift lower until Friday. A hold of this level could produce a push back towards the .81 level.
KEANE PLAN...Watching the pivot at .8035/00
The USDCAD is back in the comfort of its consolidation zone. Support begins at .9840 followed by .98. In the short-term I would expect any move towards .9840 to find support. Resistance begins at .9950.
Keane Plan... Sticking to the range.
USDJPY TRADING TO PLAN
THE USDJPY has been drifting in a very shallow range for the majority of the week. The pair drifted up and tested the bottom of past trend line support now resistance at 78.77 and has reversed its path. I would expect the pair to bounce around in this narrow range heading into the Jackson Hole.
Keane Plan....Could play the range but the RR is limited.
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