It was an interesting day to trade the EURUSD. The ECB kicked things off Thursday by leaving interest rates unchanged after it was widely expected that the central bank would lower rates 25bps. The pair moved up towards the 1.2650 area shortly after the data was released. The follow thru on this move was muted as traders waited for Draghi's press conference at 8:30 ET. During the press conference Draghi did not reveal any substantial information about the possible future bond program that had not all ready been leaked on Wednesday. The pair then moved down to touch support at 1.2560 only to bounce back to about where the cross began the day. It was interesting to see the lack of follow through on what was essential a non event press conference when traders were expecting action.
Heading into Fridays trading ,data will be front and center once again with the release of NFP. A strong payroll number could push QE once again to the back burner. Is this is the case the EURUSD could decline from the declining trend line from last October, that is currently around 1.2630. Support begins once again at 1.2560 followed by 1.2480. If Non Farm Payroll disappoints the cross could firmly push above trend line resistance and establish an upward trend.
Keane Plan...Watching price action near the descending trend line near 1.2630.
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