Keane Insights…Friday’s Trading Plan

The FOMC delivered the mail today and announced and bond buying program focusing on MBS bonds.  The plan calls for the Fed to purchase 40 billion with of MBS a month and extended the zero interest pledge until mid 2015.  The initial reaction to the announcement was anything but clearcut the majors whipsawed around until finding a footing for a push higher.  Heading into the coming days it will be interesting to see if this program will warrant a follow through after the recent runup.  Heading into Asian trading all eyes should once again be on the USDJPY trying to regain traction above the 77.35 level.  A break or hold of this level could show the cards of the majors against the dollar in the near term.  Remember to keep your trades KEANE and play it tight. 

 

EURUSD LIKES WHAT IT SEES

The EURUSD after a bit of indecision pushed forwards after the FOMC meeting results.  The pair is now firmly testing channel resistance at 1.30.  Just above this level daily price resistance rests at 1.3030.  Support begins at 1.29 follwed by 1.2820.  A push above the channel exposes the pair to a move up towards 1.3250.

Sup  129

Res 1.30/3030

Keane Plan…Watching price action at these levels Looking for a pullback.

GBPUSD BREAKS YEARLY RESISTANCE

The GBPUSD slipped above the descending trend line that has contained price action for over a year following the post FOMC decision.  IF the pair can remain above this level the cross could push up towards the 1.63 level over the next few trading days.  If the cross slips back below the trend line a move back towards 1.6030 could finish the week out.

Sup   1.6030

Res   1.6180         1.63

Keane Plan….Watching the descending yearly trend line around 1.6135…Bull/Bear line

AUDUSD STOPS AT DESCENDING TREND LINE

The AUDUSD continued its accent on Thursday following the FOMC minutes.  The cross has gained nearly four hundred pips over the last six trading days.  The pair is now up against considerable resistance at the descending trend line that has contained the  price action since last February.  A break or hold of this level will dictate the price action over the coming weeks.  A break of this level open the pair up to a test of yearly highs towards 1.0850.  A bounce at this level exposes the 1.0430 level on a pullback.

Sup   1.0430

Res    1.0630                1.0850

Keane Plan…Watching price action at the descending trend line.  A pullback could be in the cards.

NZDUSD CHANNELING HIGHER

The NZDUSD has been pushing higher over the last two weeks in a very tight channel.  The cross is now above the Bull/Bear zone and appear to be looking for a move higher.  Currently the pair is resting near it channel top around .8320 and daily price resistance at .8310.   The move higher may be tires at these levels and in need of a pullback in the short-term.

Sup  .8220

Res   .8310

Keane Plan….Watching Support and resistance levels looking for a pullback towards the bottom of the channel.

USDCAD SLIDING DOWN THE LINE

The USDCAD did not like what the FOMC was selling today.  The pair moved down by over 100 pips following the FOMC announcement.  The cross is now resting below its descending trend line and could pullback in the near term.  Below the .9725 level support does not really begin until around .94.

Sup  TL  .9690       94

Res  .9725

Keane Plan.  Lots of this air until .94.  But should ride the trendline lower.

USDJPY TWO STEPS BACK< ONE STEP FORWARD

The USDJPY was the Queen of the dance on Thursday after the FOMC meeting.  All eyes were on the pair is it danced higher and lower.  After all the twisting and turning the cross finished the day thirty pips below were it started.  The question now is will the USDJPY find support at these level after QE of a different sort was introduced in the USA.  intervention talk was already making the rounds on Wednesday.  a push much lower may turn the talks into reality.  Support is at 77.35 and resistance is at 78.

Sup  77.35      77.00     76.00

Res   78

Keane Plan…At these levels I would not short this pair.  the only way to play this cross at the moment is long at support levels

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