The week kicked of with a continuation of last week's price action.  The majors moved around testing supports and resistance levels before retreating back to the safety of the range.  Heading into the remainder of the week things may begin to change with data flow from most of the major central banks.  The fireworks begin Tuesday in Asia with the release of the AUD Reserve Bank Rate Decision.  The rate is expected to remain on hold but commentary following the announcement could give insight into the demand from China for Australian raw materials.  Then on Thursday the BOE and ECB rate decision are due followed by the CAD and USD employment reports Friday.  Heading into Tuesdays trading the AUDUSD will be the pair to watch.  It will take a confirmed break above or below the Fib range the pair has traded in over the last few weeks to start the ball rolloing. As always remember to keep your trades KEANE and to play in safe.



The EURUSD continued its slow glide sideways on Monday.  The pair has yet to decide on the direction it wants to take.  Resistance is above between 1.2970/1.30 and support is below at 1.2820.  The 1.2820 level is reinforced by a combination of a daily price support and the 200 day MVA.  A break of this level could open up the pair to a test of the fibs levels below from last months move higher. A break of 1.30 could open the pair up to a run at September’s high at 1.3070.

Sup   1.2820

Res    1.2970/1.30

Keane Plan….Looking for a break of the 200 day MVA at 1.2821 or a push above 1.30 to create momentum.  Could play the range until it breaks.

Fib Levels 

.382       1.2742

.50         1.2610




The GBPUSD is about to run into an intersection where a decision will have to be made regarding future price action.  In late trading Monday the pair was resting near the descending trend line around 1.61.  This level was resistance until broken last month and now is support.  The pair is also currently pushing towards the rising trend line from last months 900 pips advance.  This TL currently rest around 1.6080.  A break back below these levels could expose the pair to a retrace to the fib levels from last months climb higher, starting at the .382 fib at 1.60.  Resistance begins at the top of the current range at 1.63.


Sup     1.61/1.6080


Res      1.63


Keane Plan…Watching the price action in the 1.61/6080 area.  Looking for a break lower.




.382                     1.60


.50                       1.5903


.618                     1.5800


AUDUSD The Reserve Bank is on Deck.

The AUDUSD continued its battle of the fibs to start the week.  The pair tested the .618 fib at 1.0340 once again before pushing back towards the 50 fib at 1.0395 to start the week. Until the pair can break from the grasp of the fib range between .10448 (.382 Fib) and 1.0340 (.618 Fib) playing the fibs is the only way to go.  The AUD Reserve Rate Decision is due at 4:30 GMT Tuesday.  The RBA is expected to keep rates unchanged at 3.5% but watch for Dovish commentary following the release.  This could be the catalyst to push the pair out of its current range.  A break to the downside could target 1.0280 and a push higher opens a path towards 1.0520.

Sup      1.0340                    1.0280

Res      1.0450                     1.0520

Keane Plan…Waiting for the commentary following the RBA Rate Decision.


The trading plan has not changed from the last few week for this pair.  The cross is firmly in a range between the resistance zone between .8350/.83 and the support zone below between .8220/.8185.  Until the pair can pull together the strength to break out from these levels playing the range is the only plan.

Sup   .8220/.8185

Res   .83/.8350

Keane Plan…PLaying the range at the moment.  Favoring pushes lower.

USDCAD .9850 is the Key

The key to trading the USDCAD this week is the .9850 level.  A break above this level exposes the cross to a move higher towards .9950 and parity.  If the pair can not break above this level once again it favors a move back lower towards .9750 followed by the descending trend line that has supported price action over the last few months at .9660.

Sup    .9750         .9660

Res     .9850         .9950

Keane Plan….Watching price action between .9850/10

USDJPY Showing Signs of Life

The USDJPY continued climb higher on the trend line the pair has climbed since hitting lows last week around 77.50.  The question now is if the cross has the power to break above the .382 fib at 78.10 that has capped recent price action.  A break above this level opens up the path for a push higher.  Support begins at the trend line at 77.95.  A push back below this level could lead to another test of 77.75.

Sup              77.75                  77.96

Res               78.10

Keane Plan….Looking for a break of the .382 fib at 78.10 or a push below the trend line at 77.95

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