Fading the initial move on NFP Friday's always seems to be an enticing option.  It would also have been a profitable one on Friday.   Most of the majors gave up ground to finish the week.  The only real exception was the EURUSD which managed to settle right around significant fib support at 1.3030.  Heading into the new week the NZDUSD and AUDUSD are in interesting positions.  The NZDUSD settled the week below the bottom of its current range at .8175.  If the cross holds at this level we could see a move down towards .8030.  The AUDUSD is resting at daily support at 1.0180.  This a monthly low and hold or break of this level will be key.  As always keep your trades KEANE and enjoy the weekend.


The EURUSD had a mixed reaction to the NFP release.  The pairs initial impulse was to push higher above daily price resistance at 1.3030.  The pair went on to clear stops above this level before returning to the .618 fib level at 1.3030 to finish the day.  The EURUSD held stronger than most of the other majors heading into the end of the week.  This could be due to hope of positive news from the ECB regarding Spain over the weekend.

Heading into next week the fib levels between 1.3030 and 1.2970 could be key.  A break above the top of the fib range could open the pair up to a move towards 1.3170.  A break below the bottom of the fib range could lead to a test of 1.2820.  This level is the low of the last few weeks plus the 200 MVA day average rest just below.

Sup    1.2944                 1.2840

Res     1.3030                 1.3170

Keane Plan….Watching the fib range. A break to either side could lead to a test of either 1.3170 or 1.2820.

GBPUSD .618 Fib Holds

The GBPUSD pinched higher after NFP to test the .618 fib at 1.6216 before quickly reversing course lower.  The pair is once again sliding down towards the yearly trend line that had capped price action for over a year that is now support.  The cross tested the level earlier in the week but was rejected.  A second test could be in the cards.  A break below the TL could expose the fibs levels starting with the .382 fib at 1.5999

Sup    TL 1.61                    (.382 fib) 1.5999

Res    1.6216

Keane Plan…Watching the trend line support at 1.61


The AUDUSD created new weekly lows to finish the week on Friday around 1.0150.  The pair managed to rebound a tad to finish the day to end slightly above daily resistance at 1.0175.  Heading into the new Week Monday it will be all about respecting the weekly lows at 1.0150.  A break below that level open the doors to 1.02 followed by parity.  Resistance now rest at 1.0280.  To start the week consolidation could be the game.

Sup   1.0150   

Res   1.0280

Keane Plan …Watching the weekly low to start the week…Consolidation could be the plan.


The NZDUSD finished the week with a bang.  The cross pushed below the support zone that has contained price action over the last few week at .8185.  It will be interesting to see if the pair can remain below this level to kick of trading in Asia on Monday.  If so, the cross could move down to touch support at .8030.  A push back above .8185 could reactivate the range.

Sup  .8130

Res   .8185

Keane Plan…Watching price action around .8185 to start the week.


Taking a look at the pair with a  larger view and the USDCAD is still riding lower in a wide channel.  The cross trended sideways in a narrow range for the majority if the week.  The pair attempted to break below support at .9780 to end  the week but rebounded sharply.  Heading into the new week as long as the.9780 level is respected the path of less resistance is higher back towards support at .9885.

Sup   .9780

Res   .9885

Keane Plan…Above .9780 and .9885 attracts.


The USDJPY had the purest reaction to the NFP report.  The cross pushed higher after the data until running into trend line resistance just above 78.80.  The trend line at 78.80 has contained the pair since June and won’t be passed by without a fight.  Heading into the new week the TL at 78.80 is resistance and the bottom of the fib range at 78.10 should act as support. 

Sup   78.10               77.50

Res   78.80               79.65

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