Risk on Wednesday. Most majors moved up against the dollar on Wednesday after breaking higher after the New York close on Tuesday. The question now is if the pairs can retain their gains after the data dump by China at 22:00 GMT. Chinese GDP, Industrial Production And Retail sales will be on the docket. Economist estimate that GDP will be at 7.4%, Industrial Production 9.0% and Retail Sales 13.2% YTD. Disappointing data could confirm worries that the Chinese economy is slowing. All in all, Chinese data does have a way of meeting expectation. So any disappointment could cause a stir. While better than expected numbers could help the current rally along. Heading into the data flow I will be watching the AUDUSD, NZDUSD and GBPUSD. Below is the trading plan I will be following in those pairs. As always, keep your trades KEANE and play it safe.
AUDUSD Testing the 50 FIB
The AUDUSD has moved up to test the 50 fib at 1.0386 from the September 14 decline. A hold or break of this level could dictate the price action heading into the end of the week. A break above this level opens the pair up to a test of the .618 fib level at 1.0440 followed by daily price resistance at 1.0520. A hold of this level could lead to a move back lower towards support at 1.0325.
Pivot 50 Fib at 1.0386
Res 1.0440 (.618 fib) 1.0520
Keane Plan...Watching the PX after China Data dump around 50 Fib at 1.0386
NZDUSD Slicing Higher
In European trading on Wednesday the NZDUSD pushed above the descending trend line that had capped price action so far this month. The cross now has firmly established a bounce from the 50 fib at .8132 from the 9/26 high. The cross is currently resting mid range. Better then expected data from China could send the pair higher towards resistance at .8264. If Chinese data disappoints the 50 fib could be calling once again.
Sup .8185 (.382 Fib)
Keane Plan......Chinese data will dictate.
GBPUSD Challenging Trend Top.
The GBPUSD is attempting to break above the descending trend line that has capped price action around 1.6150. Heading into the New York close the pair seems comfortable resting near price support at 1.6140. The data flow out of China could be the spark to move this pair away from its current levels. With better then expected data a break at the daily high at 1.6175 could attract buyers targeting a move towards 1.6217. Conversely disappointing data could push the pair below the TL once again favoring a move back towards 1.6050.
Sup 1.6140 1.6050
Keane Plan..Watching price action around the Descending TL.
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