Keane Insights….Friday’s NFP trading Plan

It has been a slow and shallow week of trading in the FX world.  If the markets are going to see any major moves this week they will most likely occur after NFP on Friday.  Economist are looking for a number somewhere around 125K.  Predicting the price action following a NFP data point is tricky at best.  Many times the first reaction is the wrong one.  I will be watching the AUDUSD and EURUSD during the release.  For the AUDUSD it is all about a break of the resistance zone between 1.0386/1.0410 or the daily support at 1.0325.  In the EURUSD any move down to or up to sup at 1.2880 or resistance between 1.2995/1.3020 could spark interest.  Data flow is slow in early Trading Friday and range trading could be expected ahead of NFP.  Everyone have a great weekend and remember to keep your trades KEANE.

EURUSD RESTING MID_RANGE

Heading into the end of the week the EURUSD is currently resting in the middle of its weekly range.  The top of the range is between 1.3020/1.2995 and the bottom is marked by daily support at 1.2885.  Heading into NFP Friday I would expect the pair to hover around these levels.  After the release of NFP if the pair manages to break out of the current range support begins at the monthly lows at 1.2825/1.28 and support begins at 1.3060.

Sup          1.2825/1.28

Res           1.3060

GBPUSD BREAKS WEEKLY HIGHS

What the Pound gave in Europe it took back in North America.  While the cross traveled in a relatively tight range, the pair did manage to break the weekly highs.  But fell short of probing the resistance zone between 1.6180/1.6110.  Heading into Asian and European trading the cross should remain range bound ahead of NFP.  The top of the range is at 1.6180 and the bottom is at 1.61.  If NFP manages to create a bit of fireworks the levels to watch would be once again the resistance zone between 1.6180/1.6210 and support at the .382 fib at 1.5999.

Sup        1.61                                1.59     (.382 Fib)

Res        1.6180/1.6210

AUDUSD CHECKING OUT RESISTANCE

The AUDUSD was the star of the day in New York trading on Thursday.  The pair pushed above the weekly highs to test the top of the current resistance zone between 1.0410/1.0386 (50 Fib).  The cross could not muster the strength to break the 1.0410 level and is currently consolidating in the resistance zone.  A break back below the 1.0386 level could lead to profit taking ahead of NFP on Friday.

Sup          1.03

Res           1.0410/1.0386                  

Keane Plan…sidelined ahead of NFP unless the cross break below the weekly lows at 1.0325.

NZDUSD PEEKING IT HEAD ABOVE RESISTANCE

The NZDUSD lead the charge in New York trading Thursday against the dollar.  The cross bounced of trend line support in early trading and did not stop until the pair had managed to break above the resistance zone between .8250/70.  As long as the pair remains above these levels a move up towards .8350 is favored. 

Sup   .8250.70            .8220

Res    .8350

Keane Plan… A hold above .8270 favors a rotation higher.

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