Wednesday was an interesting day in the markets. The AUDUSD and NZDUSD lead the pack pushing lower in early European trading. Both pairs finished near or below significant support levels. The EURUSD and GBPUSD attempted to push higher throughout the day but finally lost their footing after President Obama's speech and the release of the FOMC minutes. Most of the majors resting near or at major support levels heading into Thursday's trading. Data flow is slow in Asian but things pick up in Europe with the release of German GDP and EURO CPI. Followed by the USD CPI report in North America. As always, remember to keep your trades KEANE and play it safe.
The EURUSD has bounced back above the .382 fib at 1.2734. The pair has managed to hold its ground in North America while the AUDUSD and NZDUSD have continued to move lower. Since the European markets opened on Wednesday the pair has consolidated in a very tight 25 pip range. A break one way or the other is in the cards. A push back above 1.2750 opens the pair up to another run towards 1.2885. If the pair rejects once again a move towards the TL at 1.2625 is favored.
Keane Plan…A hold above or below the 1.2750/35 zone is key moving forward.
GBPUSD CONSOLIDATING BELOW THE 50 FIB
The GBPUSD has found little rhyme or reason to its trading activity so far this week. A spark of inspiration could be on the way Wednesday with the release of the GBP Jobless claims reports. Economist are predicting no change and for the rate to remain at 7.9%. Any fluctuation in this number could spark life into this pair. As long as the cross remains below the 50 fib at 1.5903 a test of the .618 fib at 1.5808 is favored.
Sup 1.5808 ( .618 Fib)
Res 1.5903 (.50 Fib)
Keane Plan….Watching for a break above the 50 fib at 1.5903 or a push down towards the .618 fib at 1.5808
AUDUSD BREAKING THE 50 FIB
Finally, the markets has woken up once again and the AUDUSD and NZDUSD have shown a bit of price action. The AUDUSD has broken below the 1.04 level that had contained price action over the last week. The cross didn’t have very far to go before running into the 50 Fib from the lows at 1.0150 at 1.0386. Trend line support also intersects at this point. A hold or break at this level will be key to the pairs direction for the remainder of the week. A break below targets 1.03 followed by 1.0235.
Sup 1.0386 (50 Fib and TL) 1.03 1.0235
Keane Plan….Nice to see the death range broken. It is all about the 50 fib at the moment.
NZDUSD TESTING THREE MONTH LOWS
The NZDUSD sliced lower with the AUDUSD in New York Trading. Now similar to the AUDUSD the pair is resting a significant support. As of the European close the cross is resting near the .81 level. The .81/.8080 level has contained price action in this pair heading back to September. A hold or break of these levels will be key. A hold exposes a return towards .82 while a break opens the pair up for a run towards the .80 level.
Sup .81/.8080 .80
Keane Plan….Resting on major support at .81/.8080…It is all about a break or hold of these levels.
USDJPY ROCKETS HIGHER AFTER POLITICAL SHIFT
The USDJPY has punched higher over the last two days after the political maneuvering in the Japan has led to a possible dissolution of the House of Representatives. This measure would lead to elections that could introduce a new leadership that favors measures that could result in a weaker yen.
From a technical standpoint the pair is now once again resting about mid range. The cross has traveled in a narrow range over the last month. The top of the range is between 80.60/.81 and the bottom is between 79.50/30. Until the range breaks, The range is your friend.
Keane Plan…Playing the range until it breaks.
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