Traditional correlations have broken down a bit so far this week. Heading into the Asian session on Friday the EURUSD is testing its weekly highs. While the AUDUSD and NZDUSD are resting around weekly lows. This price action suggest thin markets and a decoupling of the risk on , risk off trading style that has dominated the markets over the last few years. This combined with very low volatility could indicate a shift back to the slower FX markets that prevailed prior to the financial crisis or it could be the calm before the storm. Many issues still hang over the global markets ranging from the fiscal cliff, Europe troubles in Greece and Spain, and rising tensions in Israel and Iran. So it is difficult to say the picture has cleared. What is true is that volume is down as is volatility and trading systems have to be adjusted accordingly.
Heading into Fridays trading the economic docket is thin. So technicals will be key... I will be watching the EURUSD for a break of its current range between 1.2780 or 1.2730 and the AUDUSD for a break or hold of the 1.03 area. As always everyone have a great weekend and remember to keep your trades KEANE.
EURUSD Trying To Break Out of the Consolidation Range
The EURUSD has been bouncing around in a modest 50 pip range for the last 48 hours. The cross has tested the top and bottom of the range but could not find the spirit or will to break above or below. The top of the range is at 1.2780 and the bottom is at 1.2730. A confirming 4hr candle below or above this range would be needed to confirm a break of the congestion. A push above the range favors a move up towards 1.2885 and a break below open the door for a push towards 1.2660.
Sup 1.2730 1.2660
Res 1.2780 1.2885
Keane Plan…Standing aside until a confirmed break of the current range between 1.2780 and 1.2730.
GBPUSD FEELING RATHER LAZY
The GBPUSD has taken it slow and easy so far this week. The pair has spent the majority of its time in a narrow 75 pip range. The cross has remained below the 50 fib at 1.5903 but has not been able to test the .618 fib at 1.5808. Heading into the close on Thursday the pair is sitting mid-range. As long as the cross remains below the 50 fib a move towards 1.58 is favored. A break above the 50 fib opens up the cards a bit and a retrace towards resistance at 1.5960 and 1.60 could play out.
Sup 1.5808 (.618 Fib)
Res 1.5903 ( 50 Fib) 1.5960 1.60
Keane Plan….A favoring a move lower as long as the pair remains below the 50 fib.
AUDUSD TAKING ON THE MONTHLY PIVOT
The AUDUSD continued its decline lower on Thursday. The pair moved down to touch its monthly pivot and has since slowly drifted higher. Heading into the end of the week it will all be about a hold or break of the 1.03 level. A break favors a continued push lower towards the 1.0250 level. It would take a break of the 50 fib at 1.0386 to negate the negative pressure on the pair.
Sup 1.03 1.0250
Res 1.0330 1.0386 ( 50 Fib)
Keane Plan….Favoring a continued move lower as long as the pair remains below 1.0386.
NZDUSD THE STORY REMAINS THE SAME
The story has remained the same for this pair over the last 24 hours. The support zone between 81 and 8075 is key. A break below pushes the NZDUSD out of its current three month range and open the pair up to a move down towards .80 followed by .7910. A bounce at this level and the pair could once again drift up towards the top of the range at .83 but first it would have to break above resent resistance at .82
Sup .81/.8075 .80 .7910
Res .82 .83
Keane Plan….It is all about a break or hold of the support zone between .81/.8075
USDCAD SHOULD I STAY OR SHOULD I GO
What to do. What to do. The USDCAD seems very comfortable resting at parity with its big brother the USD. The cross has drifted near this level over the last week or so. It will take a break of the fibs nearby to shack things up out of the current parity party. The range top is at the 50 fib at 1.0040 and the bottom is at the .382 fib at .9943.
Sup .9943 ( .382 Fib)
Res 1.0040 (50 Fib)
Keane Plan…Enjoying the parity party while it last….Need a break of the range between 1.0040 and .9943 to kick-start price action.
USDJPY TAKES A ROCKET SHIP ABOVE THE RANGE
The USDJPY has completed its journey in rocket ship fashion from the bottom of its range between 79.50/.10 to the top of its range between 80.60 and .81. The pair is now in the space above the range. The question now is if the pair can maintain its orbit in space or will it be pulled back below by the gravity of the range. A hold above the resistance zone favors a push towards 81.85.
Sup 81/8060 79.50/.10
Keane Plan….Watching price action above the resistance zone…
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