The majors proved today that you can't always believe your eyes. It appeared as though the cross where primed to break lower in early New York trading. Chit chat and new burps regarding the fiscal cliff quickly changed the plan. Most of the majors slid back into existing chop zones or away from significant support and resistance levels. Heading into Asian and European trading all eyes will once again be on the narrow consolidation zone in the EURUSD, GBPUSD and AUDUSD. A break of these zones could help paint a picture of future price action. In Asian trading data is rather light, with the highlight being AUD New Homes Report. European trading offers a bit more compelling data with the release of the EUR German Unemployment report. Everyone remember to keep your trades KEANE and clean.
EURUSD HEAD FAKE LOWER IN NEW YORK
The EURUSD and all of the majors head faked traders by abruptly changing course after the New York open. The pair is now once again in the middle of the consolidation zone that has contained so far this week between 1.2950 and 1.2885. It will take a clear break of this range to start the wheels rolling once again. A break lower runs into support at 1.2820 and a push higher has support between 1.30/1.3020.
Chop Zone 1.2950/1.2885
Keane Plan…As with all of the majors need a clear break of the chop zone to lead direction.
GBPUSD UP DOWN ALL AROUND
The GBPUSD broke below its consolidation zone in early New York trading Wednesday. The cross could not maintain it’s gains and moved back up to consolidate around 1.60. The pair is now once again in the chop zone between 1.60/1.6050. It would take a break back below 1.5966 to restart the push lower towards 1.59.
Res Daily Channel support at 1.6050
AUDUSD BOUNCES AT TREND LINE
The AUDUSD started the day looking as though it was going to break below trend line and daily price resistance at 1.0435. The pair could not manage to pull together the energy to break lower and quickly bounced back towards the middle of its congestion zone. The cross is now once again resting in the chop zone between 1.0485 and 1.0435. It will take a clear break above or below this area to kick-start this pair. A break to the bottom exposes daily support at 1.0350 and a push above the zone find resistance relatively quickly at 1.0520.
Res 1.0520 Trend Line 1.0550
Keane Plan…Waiting for a break above or below the chop zone.
NZDUSD ABOVE THE CHOP ZONE
The NZDUSD did its best today to attempt to break below the Bull/Bear line at .82. The cross appeared to be on its way lower until Fiscal Cliff talk out of the USA reversed the dollars strength. The pair is still consolidating in a narrow range between .8250 and .82. A break to the topside of the zone targets .83 and a push below the bottom favors a move towards .81.
Chop Zone .82/.8250
Res .83 .8350
Keane Plan…Sidelined until the pair breaks below or above the chop zone.
USDCAD CHANNEL TOP REJECTS
The USDCAD managed to squeeze higher to test its channel top and daily price support at .9950 before quickly reversing back into the channel. The cross now sits roughly mid-range in the channel. Support begins around .99 followed by the channel bottom at .9885. A break of the top of the channel could expose the pair to another run at parity.
Sup .99 .9885
Res .9950 1.00
Keane Plan…Watching for a break of the top of the channel or a bounce of channel support at .9885.
USDJPY 81 is holding up the show
So far this week the USDJPY has been held up by support at 81.85. A break or hold of this level will be key for the remainder of the week. A break exposes support between 81 and 80.60. a hold and the cross could once again look for resistance at 83.20. I would favor a move back towards 81 to go long against.
Sup 81.85 81/80.60
Keane Plan….Looking for a move back towards .81
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